What moves gold beyond the chart
Gold vs US real yield (inverted)
The 10-year real yield is the return on inflation-protected US bonds. Gold pays no interest, so when real yields fall, holding gold costs less and it often rises. Orange: the real yield, drawn upside down so the two usually move together. Grey: gold futures.
US dollar: Fed broad trade-weighted index (not DXY)
Gold is priced in dollars. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for the rest of the world and often weighs on it. Orange: dollar index. Grey: gold futures.
Gold volatility index (GVZ)
The market's expected gold volatility for the next 30 days, from gold ETF options. Higher = bigger expected swings and wider stops.
Funds positioning (CFTC Commitments of Traders)
Net long contracts of managed money (hedge funds, CTAs) in COMEX gold, every Tuesday, published Friday. Extremes show crowded positioning, not timing.
Sources: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (DFII10, DTWEXBGS, GVZCLS: Cboe); CFTC Commitments of Traders (disaggregated, futures only); gold: COMEX futures daily closes from our data. The futures series has small jumps at contract rolls.
Education only. Levels are reference points from real futures volume, not signals.