This week's events that move gold
Times are shown in your local time zone. Next to the big US releases: how gold actually moved the last times, measured on our own 1-minute futures data.
| Time | Cur. | Impact | Event | Forecast | Previous | Gold before |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 05:15 ET | All | Medium | OPEC-JMMC Meetings | |||
| 2026-10-05 10:00 ET | USD | Medium | ISM Services PMI | 55.1 | 55.4 | |
| 2026-10-07 14:00 ET | USD | High | FOMC Meeting Minutes | |||
| 2026-10-08 04:30 ET | USD | Medium | FOMC Member Waller Speaks | |||
| 2026-10-08 08:30 ET | USD | Medium | Unemployment Claims | 200K | 197K | |
| 2026-10-09 10:00 ET | USD | Medium | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | 47.6 | 47.8 | |
| 2026-10-09 10:00 ET | USD | Medium | Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations | 4.6% |
Calendar: Forex Factory (faireconomy.media) weekly feed. Reactions: AK Order Flow, COMEX gold futures 1-minute data.
How gold reacted before
US jobs report (Non-Farm Payrolls)
Over the last 9 releases in our data, gold's median range was $34.1 in the first 5 minutes and $54.1 in the first hour (largest: $110.1). After one hour it was higher 5 times and lower 4 times. These are past reactions in a small sample (9 releases), not a forecast of the next one.
| Date | 5-min range | 1-hour range | 1-hour move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | $42.5 | $45.8 | +7.0 |
| 2026-09-04 | $104.5 | $110.1 | -104.0 |
| 2026-08-07 | $54.0 | $61.5 | +46.0 |
| 2026-06-05 | $20.3 | $68.3 | -59.9 |
| 2026-03-06 | $42.8 | $58.0 | +19.5 |
| 2025-09-05 | $34.1 | $35.4 | +23.9 |
Fed rate decision (FOMC statement)
Over the last 8 releases in our data, gold's median range was $36.8 in the first 5 minutes and $52.0 in the first hour (largest: $111.3). After one hour it was higher 2 times and lower 6 times. These are past reactions in a small sample (8 releases), not a forecast of the next one.
| Date | 5-min range | 1-hour range | 1-hour move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | $56.8 | $62.9 | -48.8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $46.8 | $67.7 | +64.3 |
| 2026-06-17 | $63.9 | $111.3 | -95.9 |
| 2026-04-29 | $16.5 | $35.0 | -9.1 |
| 2025-12-10 | $26.8 | $41.2 | +23.8 |
| 2025-09-17 | $48.8 | $64.5 | -36.4 |
US inflation (CPI)
Over the last 12 releases in our data, gold's median range was $25.1 in the first 5 minutes and $30.6 in the first hour (largest: $76.5). After one hour it was higher 7 times and lower 5 times. These are past reactions in a small sample (12 releases), not a forecast of the next one.
| Date | 5-min range | 1-hour range | 1-hour move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | $52.9 | $62.7 | -9.5 |
| 2026-07-14 | $76.5 | $76.5 | +53.1 |
| 2026-06-10 | $35.8 | $42.4 | +7.7 |
| 2026-05-13 | $13.2 | $20.0 | +0.9 |
| 2026-04-10 | $21.5 | $22.0 | +14.2 |
| 2026-02-11 | $68.1 | $70.8 | -14.9 |
Latest from the Federal Reserve
- Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by Fleur Capital Corporation Fri, 2 Oct 2026
- Federal Reserve Board announces it will extend, until November 4, the comment period on its proposal to modernize Regulation O Fri, 2 Oct 2026
- Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with Ontario Bancorporation, Inc. Fri, 2 Oct 2026
- Federal Reserve Board finalizes changes to enhance the transparency and public accountability of its stress test and reduce volatility in its stress test-related capital requirements Wed, 30 Sep 2026
- Agencies publish resolution plan feedback letters for 15 banking organizations Tue, 29 Sep 2026
- Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by Peoples Bancorp Inc. Fri, 25 Sep 2026
Education only. Levels are reference points from real futures volume, not signals.